Informational
On February 17, China—the engine behind a huge chunk of what gets manufactured, packaged, and shipped around the world—essentially presses pause. And if you’re an importer who hasn’t already started thinking about this, you’re already behind.
That’s not meant to alarm you. It’s just the reality of doing business with China, and once you understand the pattern, you can plan around it rather than scramble through it.
It’s Not Just a Holiday. It’s a Supply Chain Event.
Here’s something that surprises a lot of first-time importers: the Chinese New Year disruption doesn’t start on February 17. It started weeks ago.
Factory workers across Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and beyond begin heading home well before the official holiday. Some leave two weeks early. Some don’t come back for a month. And the factories? Many of them don’t reach full production capacity until well into March. When you add it all up, you’re looking at a 6 to 8-week window where supply from China is genuinely reduced—not just paused.
The World Shipping Council estimates China accounts for roughly 14% of global merchandise exports. When that volume compresses into a pre-holiday rush and then temporarily disappears, the effects ripple across freight rates, port congestion, vessel schedules, and warehouse capacity worldwide.
What the Next Few Weeks Actually Look Like
Right now through mid-February—Cargo is flooding Chinese ports as factories push out final shipments before shutdown. Vessel space is tight. Spot rates are elevated. If you have bookings, great. If you don’t, you’re competing for what’s left.
February 17—New Year’s Day. Factories go quiet. Freight stations close. Logistics contacts stop answering. The official holiday runs through February 23, but operationally, many businesses in China won’t be fully back until early March.
Late February into March—This is where things get complicated for importers. Factories restart gradually. Workers trickle back. And then, almost all at once, a backlog of pent-up cargo hits Chinese ports at the same time. Space gets tight again. Congestion builds at Yantian, Ningbo, and Shanghai. Carriers sometimes cancel voyages (blank sailings) because post-CNY volumes temporarily dip before surging.
It’s a cycle that repeats itself every year—and yet it still catches people off guard every year.
Worth knowing: Transpacific spot rates often spike 15–40% in the weeks leading up to CNY. Importers who locked in bookings early pay significantly less than those scrambling for last-minute space.
The Parts of Your Supply Chain That Feel It Most
It’s not just ocean freight that takes a hit. The disruption touches almost every layer of the logistics chain.
Manufacturing takes the most obvious hit—no workers, no production. But what’s less obvious is how long it takes to get back to full output after the holiday ends. A factory might “reopen” on February 24 but only be running at 40% capacity for another week or two.
Documentation is where a lot of importers lose time they didn’t expect to lose. Commercial invoices, packing lists, certificates of origin—all of these require people to be at their desks, and during CNY, those desks are empty. If your documents aren’t ready before the shutdown, expect delays getting cargo cleared at the US port.
Freight bookings are the other pressure point. The post-CNY surge is real. When cargo starts moving again, everyone’s competing for the same vessels at the same time. Carriers prioritize clients with established relationships and forwarding partners who can confirm cargo immediately.
Your US warehouse feels the whiplash too—a rush of pre-CNY inbound, then a quiet period, then another surge. If you don’t plan for it, you end up with either too much stock or not enough at exactly the wrong moments.
5 Practical Things to Do Right Now
1. Get any remaining ocean freight booked today. Not tomorrow—today. Space on transpacific vessels is limited, and the window to secure good rates is closing fast. Our Ocean Freight Shipping team can move quickly. Reach out, and we’ll tell you honestly what’s still available.
2. Actually confirm your factory restart dates. Don’t just assume your supplier reopens on February 24 because that’s the official end of the holiday. Call them. Ask when production will realistically be back to full capacity. The answer is often later than you’d think—and knowing that ahead of time changes how you plan your inventory.
3. Get your inventory positioned now. If you’ve got a shipment arriving before the holiday, use it. Our Warehousing and Distribution facilities can hold buffer stock so you’re not caught short in February or March.
4. Chase your documents before factories close. This is one people consistently underestimate. Your supplier’s admin team goes on holiday too. If you need a certificate of origin, a corrected invoice, or any compliance document, ask for it now while there are still people in the office to issue it.
5. Have a contingency plan for blank sailings. Post-CNY is prime time for carriers to cancel voyages. If that happens to a shipment you’re counting on, you need a forwarder who can rebook you fast. Our Freight Forwarding team actively monitors sailings and reroutes cargo when schedules change—before it becomes an emergency.
Already Dealing With a Delay?
If cargo is already stuck—whether that’s at a Chinese port, on the water, or waiting on customs—the most valuable thing right now is visibility. Knowing exactly where it is and what’s holding it up means you can respond instead of react.
Our US Handling Agent team monitors inbound shipments around the clock and flags issues before they turn into detention fees or missed delivery windows. And once cargo arrives, our CTPAT-certified Customs Clearance team moves it through quickly. If you’ve got questions about what to expect, our FAQs page is a good starting point.
The Bigger Picture: Building a Supply Chain That Handles This Every Year
Here’s the honest truth—CNY will happen again in 2027, and 2028, and every year after that. The goal isn’t just to survive this one. It’s to build a supply chain that handles it without breaking.
That means diversifying where you source from. Vietnam, India, and Mexico have all grown significantly as manufacturing alternatives, and a multi-origin strategy reduces your exposure when any one country slows down. It also means building smarter inventory buffers—not carrying excess stock all year but knowing when and where to pre-position it.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) also points out that air freight becomes a genuinely useful tool during peak disruption windows for high-value, time-sensitive goods when ocean options are full or delayed.
If you want to think through what that kind of resilience looks like for your specific business, our Logistics Consulting team does exactly that.
Bottom Line
Chinese New Year is four days away. There are still things you can do—bookings to confirm, documents to chase, inventory to position. The worst thing you can do right now is wait and see.
TEU Global has helped thousands of importers across more than 300 countries navigate CNY season year after year. We’re not going to sugarcoat the disruption, but we can absolutely help you manage through it. Give us a call at 877-414-8381, drop us a message on our contact page and we’ll get back to you fast.
